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Roger Martin-Fagg's October 2020 Economic Report

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Roger has published his latest quarterly report, and once again strikes a positive tone despite all the news around the Coronavirus pandemic.

He takes a swipe at the British media again, who he claims "revel in portraying the suffering of the unfortunate few". He predicts no more national lockdown and an end to the 10pm pubs curfew. He is fairly optimistic about SME businesses, but expects the increase in unemployment to hit white collar workers harder this time, rather than blue collar workers.

Based on his reading of money supply, freight rates from Asia, Job stats and housing price data he predicts a V-shaped recovery with growth in 2021 reaching 10%, all but erasing the predicted 11% shrinkage in 2020. If he's right, that would make it the shortest deepest recession since records began. In the meantime he reckons the government will have increased the amount of money pumped in to the economy from the current £200bn to £300bn - that's £4.5k per person.

He also predicts a bare-bones trade deal with the EU by the end of the year but with a border in the Irish Sea.

Click here to download his full report.