Roger Martin-Fagg's December 2020 Economic Report

Roger, our independent 'house economist' is still upbeat in the December edition of his quarterly report. He sets out his surprisingly positive expectations for 2021.

This one starts a bit heavy on the theory of bank debt, explaining that it doesn't all have to be paid down straight away. He also notes that unlike the Credit Crunch where the rich felt most of the benefit of extra government cash, this time it is households. See the spike in the savings rate as a result.

He cautions everyone again to check their biases, and to make sure they don't choose their source of media just to reinforce a pre-existing opinion.

He is still confident (ish) of a trade deal with the EU by the end of the year and with that in mind he makes some predictions for next year on Inflation, House Prices, GDP Growth, Unemployment, Forex and Shares. He also predicts the shape of the recovery - which is now going to be a "Double W"

Click here to download his full report to see what one of them looks like!